By Michelle Stecker
Contributing reporter

An overflow crowd attended the Central Texas Water Coalition meeting Jan. 12 at Carlos ‘n’ Charlie’s where state climatologist Dr. John W. Nielsen-Gammon was the key speaker.

“This drought has been the most intense one-year drought in Texas since at least 1895 when statewide weather records begin, [and] it probably already ranks among the five worst droughts overall,” Nielsen-Gammon said in briefing documents dated Oct. 31,2011, which were prepared for the Texas Legislature.

“The attendance was remarkable,” former Lakeway mayor Cole Rowland said, noting approximately 300 people were on hand for the meeting.

“I had heard about El Nino and La Nina, and now I understand just what [those currents] are and how they can produce drought conditions,” Rowland said, commenting on the presentation by Nielsen-Gammon.

Rowland said the presentation noted that above average temperatures patterns in the Pacific Ocean produce a strong current, La Nina, which influences precipitation amounts and temperatures across the southwestern U.S. and is largely responsible for the drought conditions that began in September 2010.

“He [Nielsen-Gammon] expects the drought to last at least through the summer of 2012,” said Rowland.”

Lonnie Moore, president of Protect Lake Travis Association, said Nielsen-Gammon pointed out that the drought could also last much longer, even seven to 15 years.

“That is scary,” he added.

Because of the return of La Niña, conditions in the tropical Pacific, a second year of drought in Texas is likely, which will result in continued drawdown of water supplies. Whether the drought will end after two years or last three years or beyond is impossible to predict with any certainty,” Nielsen-Gammon said in his Texas Legislature prepared executive summary.

The last normal climate conditions in Texas occurred in September 2010 when several weather systems brought rain to south Texas and along the I-35 corridor, according to the report prepared by Nielsen-Gammon. The drought worsened and reached catastrophic proportions through all of 2011.

Crops failed, livestock perished on the dusty plains and wildfires ignited spreading rapidly from strong wind systems and record heat.

Higher temperatures cause moisture to evaporate at a fast rate exacerbating the drought conditions.

Lake Travis water levels at are at historic lows due to the continuing drought and outdated water management policies, said Janet Caylor, owner Lakeway Marina and Riveriera Marina and vice president of the Central Texas Water Coalition.

“We have had to move most of the boat docks out of the cove [at the Lakeway Marina] where we have been for 47 years except for 2009 when we had to move a few docks out,” Caylor said, noting a water plan for Lake Travis is a necessity. “Last year, the amount of water released from Lake Travis was the most rapid drain in history. We are very worried we’ll go into 2013 with the same disastrous plan.”

The duration of the drought is unpredictable and “we should prepare for the worst,” said Moore, who agreed that the LCRA water allocation plan should be revised to reflect the booming Austin metro area’s demand for water and the water hungry rice farms in the Rio Grand Valley.

LCRA manages lakes Travis and Buchanan, the region’s water supply reservoirs, through its state-approved Water Management Plan. LCRA is currently updating the plan.

For more information, visit www.LCRA.org/water/drought/index.html.