BY CHARLES McCLURE
news@ltview.com
Dr. Stephen Fought is worried, but you wouldn’t know that from his calm and cool demeanor during his speech during the March 15 Viewpoints dinner speaker series at the Lakeway Activity Center.

 ”It was my assignment to answer the question; ‘What can the Department of Defense anticipate under the new [Barrack Obama] Administration?” Fought mused. “So what is the so-called ‘conventional wisdom,’ and how do I evaluate it?”
Fought pondered the question for a moment.
“Conventional wisdom – since the President has absolutely no experience in National Security matters – is that he will be tested early and he will likely fail or show considerable weakness. That is the conventional wisdom. These concerns are personified that his associations are with the liberal and/or radical military Left. That is a fact. All of this is more disconcerting to the military analysts from the conservative side of the isle. And frankly, there is little or no evidence being currently advanced to alleviate these concerns. In fact, it is around these concerns that the so-called conventional wisdom – or what might be better described as the conventional anxiety – exists.”
He said many conservative thinkers “expect an amateur act” concerning Obama’s performance on the international stage.
Not so fast, said Fought.
“He has surrounded himself with pros,” Fought observed. “So I argue the contrary – and it is based in his appointments. Let’s start at the top – Secretary [of Defense Robert] Gates. Sec. Gates is a Washington pro, he is a national security pro – he has been in every single apparatus concerning national security. That is a serious appointee.”
Fought, a Professor Emeritus and a former Dean of the Air War College who served for 18 years at the Naval War College as professor, Director of Electives, and Forrest Sherman Chair of Public Diplomacy, noted that he had personally served with Under Secretary of Defense Bill Lind.
“Yes, Bill did come from [Mass. Sen. Ted] Kennedy’s staff, but you have to come from somewhere,” Fought mused. “But Bill put accountability into key Pentagon programs, and that was a serious change. He is an insider – a pro – he knows what he is doing. He is not an amateur.”
Fought pointed out that numerous key military advisors from the George W. Bush Administration were staying on in key positions, and that would likely serve the President well, from an experience standpoint.
“There is a lot of continuity in special operations and Intelligence,” Fought remarked. “That is critical.”
On some fronts, the foreign policy challenges are “Obama’s to lose.”
He pointed to the war in Iraq.
“Iraq is stabilizing, and it is my opinion that this issue can be put aside as long as it is stable and troop withdrawals are proceeding,” Fought noted. “However, that is an issue that may be ignored in the public, based on how much progress is being made in Afghanistan and if other major events crop up on the world scene. The issue of withdrawal will only be one if we experience large numbers of casualties.”
He pointed out that Afghanistan will be a “hard nut to crack,” reminding the audience that it was Afghanistan that brought the former Soviet Union to its fiscal knees.
He also said that there was too much diatribe concerning potential cuts in defense spending.
“A few of the doom sayers who contribute to the conventional wisdom are forecasting rather large cuts in Department of Defense spending,” Fought observed. “I argue somewhat to the contrary – in that I believe that cuts of any size will be politically expedient, as measured in terms of domestic policy.”
Fought takes issue with the “amateur hour” predictions of military hawks.
“I don’t see any reason to believe this Administration will be the amateur hour, nor will it launch into radical policy changes,” Fought said. “That doesn’t mean it will be smarter than previous Administrations. We will just have to wait and see.”
Fought is concerned with the current transformation of the military from its Cold War strategy to the new challenges offered by terrorist organizations.
“We are not in a war with Islam,” he said succinctly, “We are in a war with Radical Islam. They are very different indeed.”
He warned that the one thing the government cannot do is view the Department of Defense as “a business.”
“National Security is not a business, it is an obligation, and must be treated differently,” he noted. “The DoD is not a business and cannot be managed that way,”
In addition to the known military hot spots of the world, Fought has concerns about China and other emerging nations, particularly as the current recession deepens,
With that said, he does believe Obama, as all Presidents, will be tested, but only time will tell how the youthful President will react.
A retired Air Force Lt. Colonel and B-52 pilot, he earned a Ph.D. from Brown University, and has been lecturing on U.S. national security policy throughout the U.S., in Europe, and in South America over the past quarter century.
He remains an adjunct professor at the University of Virginia and the Naval War College.
Fought and his wife, Gina [a retired Navy officer], live in Sun City, Texas (Georgetown).
Fought’s mother, Lorraine, was a longtime Lakeway resident until she moved to a new home in Sun City in January.